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ISSN : 2287-7991(Print)
ISSN : 2287-8009(Online)
Journal of the Preventive Veterinary Medicine Vol.42 No.3 pp.99-106
DOI : https://doi.org/10.13041/jpvm.2018.42.3.99

Simulation modelling to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies during the 2010/11 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the city of Andong, Republic of Korea

Eu-Tteum Kim,Son-Il Pak
College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Republic of Korea
Corresponding Author. Son-Il Pak, Tel: +82-33-250-8672, Fax: +82-33-259-5625

Abstract

A simulation model of the 2010/11 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the city of Andong, Republic of Korea was constructed to evaluate the epidemiologic effectiveness of FMD-control strategies. Seven FMD-control strategies were evaluated with respect to a number of epidemiologic indicators relating to the outbreak, including the number of infected animals, number of infected farms, and epidemic duration. The FMD-control strategies in the model consisted of pre-emptive slaughtering, movement restriction, and vaccination; however, levels of each control option differed. The constructed model was not perfectly representative of the 2010/11 FMD epidemic, although it was considered to mimic the actual FMD epidemic in its prediction of two outcomes: the median number of simulated FMD-detected farms was 294 (range 207–515), which was close to the number of farms detected (299) during the actual FMD epidemic (x2=87.239, df=98, p = 0.774); and the simulated epidemic curve was visually similar to the actual epidemic curve of the 2010/11 FMD epidemic. The effectiveness evaluation of simulated FMD-control strategies emphasized the amount the FMD outbreak size could have increased if the radius of the pre-emptive slaughtering area or the duration of movement restriction were decreased.

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